Opinion column by real estate market analyst Viktoriia Smyk

For the past several years, Ukraine’s state-backed mortgage program “eOselya” has been one of the key drivers of the residential real estate market — especially in Kyiv and its suburbs.

However, after the government updated the program rules in 2026, the situation began changing rapidly. As a real estate market analyst, I can already see how the new requirements are reshaping buyer demand and significantly reducing the number of apartments eligible for preferential mortgages in Kyiv.

What Changed in the eOselya Program

Following Cabinet Resolution No. 1637, the Ukrainian government introduced major changes to the mortgage program.

The updated rules include:

• stricter apartment size limits;
• price caps per square meter;
• restrictions based on building age;
• expanded review of applicants’ real estate transactions over the last 36 months.

These changes are already having a direct impact on the primary housing market.

Why Fewer Apartments Qualify in Kyiv

The core issue is simple: Kyiv’s modern housing market was designed for completely different buyer expectations.

For example, under the updated rules, a family of two may only qualify for an apartment up to 52.5 sq.m.

But in reality, most modern two-bedroom apartments in Kyiv range between 65–75 sq.m., especially in comfort-class residential developments.

As a result, many high-quality apartments automatically fall outside the mortgage program.

The Conflict Between Market Demand and State Limits

Over the past decade, developers have adapted projects to modern lifestyles:

• larger kitchens and living spaces;
• flexible layouts;
• home office areas;
• multifunctional apartments for families.

Today’s buyers in Kyiv are no longer choosing just square meters — they are choosing comfort, functionality, and quality of life.

That is why the updated eOselya requirements create a structural conflict between social housing standards and real market demand.

Why Even Affordable Apartments May Not Qualify

Another major issue is the new price cap.

In 2026, the maximum eligible price in Kyiv is around UAH 66,000 per square meter.

While average market prices formally fit within this range, many modern residential complexes already exceed these limits.

Apartments in comfort- and business-class developments often cost UAH 70,000–75,000 per sq.m. or more.

Moreover, buyers can no longer compensate for the difference with a larger down payment.

This automatically excludes many high-quality new developments from the program.

What Will Happen to Kyiv’s Housing Market

In my opinion, the market will experience several important trends in the near future.

Growing demand for eligible apartments

Compact apartments that meet the new eOselya criteria will become increasingly scarce.

As a result, prices in this segment may increase by 5–7% in the short term.

Rising demand in Kyiv suburbs

Buyers who can no longer afford apartments in Kyiv under the mortgage program will increasingly move toward suburban locations such as:

• Brovary;
• Irpin;
• Boryspil;
• Vyshneve.

This trend will continue strengthening suburban real estate demand.

Developers will adapt layouts

The market is already beginning to adjust:

• smaller apartment sizes;
• more functional layouts;
• compact next-generation apartments.

However, real estate development cycles take years, meaning the market cannot instantly rebuild supply around new mortgage rules.

Will eOselya Disappear From Kyiv?

I do not believe the program will completely leave Kyiv’s housing market.

However, its role is clearly changing.

eOselya is gradually transforming:
from a universal mortgage solution
into a basic social housing instrument.

As a result, buyers are increasingly considering alternatives:

• developer installment programs;
• long-term payment plans;
• suburban housing options.

Developers capable of offering flexible financing and modern layouts will gain the strongest competitive advantages in the coming years.

Conclusion

The updated eOselya program is already reshaping Kyiv’s primary real estate market.

While the government aims to make the program more controlled and socially focused, the new restrictions significantly reduce available housing options for buyers.

The market is entering a new phase:

• compact apartments will become more important;
• competition for affordable housing will intensify;
• developers will rethink layouts and financing strategies.

And this transformation has already begun.

Viktoriia Smyk
Real Estate Market Analyst